DataGreat, a tourism intelligence platform, has unveiled a scenario analysis examining the potential impact of a prolonged escalation involving Iran, Israel, and the United States on Turkish tourism. This sector is vital for Türkiye as it ranks as the country’s third-largest export sector. The analysis, conducted by founder Alper Tekin using DataGreat’s Crisis Impact Simulator, is based on the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025 dataset. Türkiye’s proximity to the conflict zone is significant, with six of its top ten inbound tourism markets, including Russia, Germany, and the United Kingdom, located within approximately 3,000 kilometers of the Iran-Israel axis. Tourism accounts for over 11 percent of Türkiye’s GDP and sustains around three million direct jobs, as per WTTC figures.
The Crisis Impact Simulator employed by DataGreat does not provide forecasts but instead applies deterministic scenario rules on WTTC and World Bank data, generating explanatory narratives through a generative-AI layer. Tekin emphasizes the tool’s accuracy, stating that any numeric claims must be verifiable against the dataset, thus ensuring “zero hallucinations.” In Scenario A, a regional escalation could lead to airspace disruptions and tightened sanctions, potentially impacting European leisure demand, particularly from Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands. Business travel from the EU, however, might show more resilience.
Scenario B focuses on a potential decline in Russian outbound tourism to Türkiye, which is the largest inbound source for the country. The Simulator explores a possible 20 to 35 percent reduction over a year, caused by increased sanctions, payment-corridor issues, and pressure on the ruble. The impact would be most pronounced in the Antalya and Muğla coastal areas, affecting operators reliant on Russian charters. Meanwhile, Scenario C examines the effects of TRY/USD volatility, where a risk-premium spike on the Turkish lira linked to the US-Iran tensions might lead to a temporary increase in dollar-denominated receipts, although domestic leisure demand could suffer as households adjust their discretionary spending.
According to Tekin, the aim of this work is to offer a planning tool rather than a forecast, enabling destination management organizations and operators to prepare for potential scenarios before they occur. The complete output for each scenario, detailing segment vulnerabilities, mitigation strategies, and watchlist indicators, is available upon request to credentialed media. Additionally, DataGreat’s Risk Radar module, which evaluates 42 countries weekly across six tourism risk categories, provides complementary insights.
DataGreat, operated by Solustiq Yazılım ve Yapay Zeka Teknolojileri A.Ş. and headquartered in Edirne, Türkiye, is built on the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025 dataset. The platform offers various products, including a Persona Builder, Risk Radar, Campaign Brief Generator, and the Crisis Impact Simulator, covering 42 countries and 26,880 verified data points.